Brazil can achieve zero emissions by 2040, says Carlos Nobre May 8, 2025

Professor Carlos Nobre by © Marcelo Camargo/Agência Brasil

Brazil can achieve zero emissions by 2040, says Carlos Nobre

A scientist sees an urgent need to transition to a 100% clean energy matrix

Fabíola Sinimbú – Reporter for Agência Brasil

Published on May 7, 2025, at 1:21 p.m.

According to scientist Carlos Nobre, Brazil is capable of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2040. In his opening speech on the second day of the 5th National Environment Conference, Nobre discussed climate change and previewed data from an ongoing study that finds the country can achieve this goal by that date.

According to Nobre, transitions to a 100% clean energy matrix, carbon-neutral agriculture, negative emissions from proper land use, and large-scale restoration are necessary.

“Brazil has the full potential to have 100% clean and renewable energy and, by 2040, much more carbon-neutral agriculture and large-scale forest restoration. Our study shows that we can remove up to 600 million tons of CO2 annually, starting in 2040, by restoring biomes,” says the climatologist.

The scientist pointed out that the effects of these measures, in addition to addressing the climate emergency, could ensure a better quality of life for populations.

“In case you don't know, burning fossil fuels generates pollutants in every city in the world. How many people die from urban pollution worldwide? Six to seven million people per year.”

Carlos Nobre pointed out that, in 2022, Brazil was the fifth-largest emitter on the planet, dumping 11 tons of greenhouse gases per person per year. In comparison with other major emitters, China emitted 10.5 tons per person at the time, India 2 tons, and the United States 16.5 tons per person per year.

According to the scientist, Brazil has been improving this situation, but with the current government's policies, such as the restoration of 12 million hectares and the goal of zero deforestation in all biomes by 2030, the country will still emit 1.2 billion tons of CO2 equivalent if the use of fossil fuels and high-emission agriculture continues.

Consequences

Without more emphatic measures to address the climate emergency, Carlos Nobre shows that there will be serious consequences, such as coral bleaching, which threatens 25% of all ocean biodiversity, and the intensification of global warming, with indications that 99% of species will disappear if the planet exceeds 2 degrees above the industrial period.

Other disastrous consequences highlighted by the climatologist include the thawing of land with solid water, which is responsible for retaining huge amounts of methane and carbon dioxide.

“If we exceed 2 degrees, we will release more than 200 billion tons of methane and carbon dioxide. Methane is a very powerful greenhouse gas, 30 times stronger than carbon dioxide,” he explains.

Amazon

In Brazil, the risk of the Amazon reaching a point of no return is increasing, says Carlos Nobre. “The entire southern Amazon is experiencing a four to five week longer dry season, with drier air and a significant increase in tree mortality.”

In a region that encompasses southeastern and southern Pará and northern Mato Grosso, the forest has already become a source of carbon emissions, failing to fulfill its ecosystem service of capturing these gases. “In the 1990s, Amazon removed more than 1.5 billion tons of CO2, and this region is getting very close to the point of no return,” he emphasizes.

Droughts are more severe, with more intense phenomena such as El Niño, and the Atlantic is warmer, making the Amazon drier.

“We used to have a severe drought every 20 years, and now we've had them in 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2016, in addition to the strongest drought on record in 2023 and 2024.”

All of this impacts the presence of flying rivers, which are responsible for bringing rain to much of the country. “The forest in the indigenous territories of the Brazilian Amazon alone can explain the presence of up to 30% of flying rivers. At least 40% of the rain in the Cerrado and southern Brazil and 15% in the Southeast depends on flying rivers,” he emphasizes.

All these impacts, already apparent, could result in a drastic change of scenario in the country. “If deforestation reaches between 20 and 25% and global warming reaches 2.5°C, we will lose at least 50% of the Amazon, perhaps even 70%. The forest will become a degraded ecosystem. It will look like a tropical savanna in the Cerrado, but very degraded, without the rich biodiversity found here in the Cerrado,” says Nobre.

The scientist points out that the Cerrado and Caatinga are also very close to the point of no return, which implies more heat waves and risks to human health, as well as more extreme weather events and pandemics originating in the unbalanced forest.

Carlos Nobre also pointed out ways for cities to adapt to the challenges of reducing socioeconomic inequalities and leaving a sustainable legacy for future generations.

Report by Agência Brasil with permission through citation of the source.