China's 2024 coal projects threaten climate targets: report February 13, 2025

Trucks being loaded with cola in Lianyungang, Jiangsu provinde, eastern China (PhotoSTR/AFP/AFP)

By AFP. Agence France Presse

China's 2024 coal projects threaten climate targets: report

Sam DAVIES

Last year began building projects with the largest combined coal-fired power capacity since 2015, putting at risk its goal of peaking carbon emissions by 2030, according to a report published on Thursday.

The world's second-largest economy is the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases that drive climate change, but it is also a powerhouse in renewable energy. The country plans to reach net zero by 2060.

Coal has been a key energy source in China for decades, but the explosive growth of wind and solar installations in recent years has raised hopes that the country can ditch dirty fossil fuel.

However, according to a report by the Finland-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and the US-based Global Energy Monitor (GEM), China has started construction on 94.5 gigawatts of coal-fired power projects by 2024 - 93% of the global total.

Although China has also added a record 356 gigawatts of wind and solar capacity - 4.5 times more than the European Union's additions - the rise of coal power risks solidifying its role in the energy mix, according to the report.

“The rapid expansion of renewable energy in China has the potential to reshape its energy system, but this opportunity is being undermined by the simultaneous large-scale expansion of coal power,” said Qi Qin, lead author of the report and China analyst at CREA.

The increase comes despite Chinese President Xi Jinping's pledge in 2021 to “strictly control” coal power projects and increases in coal consumption before “gradually reducing” it between 2026 and 2030.

Coal production has increased steadily in recent years, rising from 3.9 billion tons in 2020 to 4.8 billion tons in 2024.

“Without urgent policy changes, China risks reinforcing a pattern of energy addition rather than transition, limiting the full potential of its clean energy boom,” said the report.

- Coal prioritized -

New permits for coal-fired power projects fell by 83% in the first half of 2024, leading to optimism that China's clean energy transition was gathering pace.

In November, a survey of experts carried out by CREA and the Australian think tank International Society for Energy Transition Studies (ISETS) revealed that 52% believed that coal consumption in China would peak in 2025.

But coal power remained high in the final months of 2024, despite China adding enough power from clean energy sources to cover its growth in electricity demand.

This suggests that coal power was being prioritized over renewable sources in some regions, according to the report.

“Chinese coal power and mining companies are sponsoring and building new coal plants beyond what is necessary,” said Christine Shearer, research analyst at GEM.

“The continued pursuit of coal is hindering the use of low-cost clean energy in the country”

Analyst David Fishman agreed with much of the report but said he was “more optimistic” about phasing out coal in the coming years.

The increase in coal power at the end of last year may be “a short-term symptom of a market in transition to true economic acceptance... rather than a sign of a system designed to benefit coal generators,” Fishman, senior manager at Lantau Group, told AFP.

- New targets

China is expected to announce details of its 15th Five-Year Plan - for 2026 to 2030 - in the coming months, probably including updated emissions and energy targets.

This month, the country is also expected to present new emissions targets, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), under the terms of the 2015 Paris Agreement.

So far, only a few countries have submitted new NDCs.

China should “set a total cap on coal power generation” and formulate “a clear timeline for phasing out coal power”, Gao Yuhe, Greenpeace East Asia project leader based in Beijing, told AFP.

“The 2030 target for installed renewable energy capacity should be increased to accelerate the replacement of coal-fired power with renewable energy to peak carbon emissions in the power sector before 2025,” she said.

sam/reb/pbt