From wave to failure? Greens face tough times in EU vote June 6, 2024

Green parties could lose seats in the next EU Parliament elections (Simon Wohlfahrt)

By AFP - Agence France Presse

From wave to failure? Greens face tough times in EU vote

Five years ago, the Green parties achieved their best results in the EU parliamentary elections and helped pass several important pieces of legislation.

But this time, when people across the 27-nation bloc go to the polls later this week, the Greens are expected to suffer heavy losses in the face of a right-wing backlash and voter fatigue.

Opinion polls predict that the coalition of Green parties could lose a third of the 72 European Parliament seats it currently holds and, in France, risk falling from 12 to zero.

Although the last election to the EU Parliament in 2019 was accompanied by mass demonstrations on climate change, environmental issues have fallen down the list of priorities this year as voters face a series of other global crises.

The main concerns now include the economy, unemployment, and security, as wars intensify in Ukraine and the Middle East and the EU struggles to revive growth after record inflation.

“Environmental issues remain important, but no longer enough to determine the vote,” said Phuc-Vinh Nguyen, a researcher at the Jacques Delors Institute think-tank.

To back this up, a recent survey by Eurobarometer, the EU's polling company, revealed that 84% of respondents believe that legislation to protect the environment is necessary, even if it is not their priority.

“But the election result will send a political signal, with the risk of interpreting the Greens' weakness as a rejection of climate policy in general,” said Nguyen.

- Taking a break? -

But it's not just the fact that other important issues are diluting the Greens' vote in the contest for the EU's 720-seat parliament.

As the EU has pushed ahead with its gigantic “Green Deal” package of laws, right-wing parties have taken advantage of the discontent to turn it into a game of political soccer.

Nathalie Brack, a political scientist at the Belgian university ULB, said that the conservative European People's Party (EPP) - the largest group in the EU parliament - has begun to “discredit the ecological agenda”.

After watering down or rejecting several green laws last year, the EPP, a favorite in the elections, is now openly calling for a “pause” in any further legislation of this kind to focus on competitiveness.

“The center-right has changed its tone and started to present things more and more as a dilemma of choosing between the economy on the one hand and the environment on the other,” said Brack.

“This amplified the far right's message that people are more interested in paying the bills at the end of each month than at the end of the world.”

What stood out most in the resistance against the EU's environmental law was a wave of protests by farmers across the bloc, fueled by anger at regulations deemed excessive.

Philippe Lamberts, co-chair of the Greens group in parliament, said that other political factions across the spectrum were increasingly losing heart to pass difficult reforms.

“Initially, they supported the Green Deal when it was politically expensive to oppose it, before changing tack when it was no longer promising from an electoral point of view and we were entering the difficult part of the transition,” said Lamberts.

But the Green parties are also to blame for their declining poll numbers, as their involvement in various coalition governments in Europe has forced concessions that have angered their base.

For example, in Germany, where the Greens are part of a three-party coalition government, they look set to see their vote drop from 20.5% in 2019 to 14% after accepting the reopening of coal plants following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

- Coalition problems

As they battle at the ballot box, the Greens are pinning their hopes on mobilizing voters, stressing the threat posed by a likely rise of the far right to the EU's environmental ambitions.

This is a real risk, as several Green Deal laws have review clauses or will need to be adapted to meet the EU's 2040 climate targets, which have yet to be adopted.

But analysts say that all is not lost.

Even with the possibility of losing their position as the fourth largest party in parliament, the Greens can still play a key role in helping to form a majority after the elections.

The current head of the EU, Ursula von der Leyen, who comes from the EPP, may be fighting for support to try to secure the backing she needs for a second term.

This could mean that the Greens could demand “guarantees” of maintaining environmental ambitions in exchange for supporting von der Leyen, said Nguyen.

A partial break-up of the Green Agreement could be avoided with a “broader grand coalition” bringing together the Greens, the Social Democrats, the Liberals and the EPP,” he said.

By Julien GIRAULT

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