Stuck in an eternal drought, the United Arab Emirates turns to AI to make it rain February 25, 2025

The population of the United Arab Emirates is concentrated in the coastal cities of Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Sharjah (KARIM SAHIN) (KARIM SAHIN/AFP/AFP)

By AFP - Agence France Presse

Stuck in an eternal drought, the United Arab Emirates turns to AI to make it rain

Talek Harris

In the marble halls of a luxury hotel, leading experts are discussing a new approach to an age-old problem: how to make it rain in the United Arab Emirates, the wealthy Gulf state that sits in one of the world's largest deserts.

Decades of work and millions of dollars have been invested to alleviate the endless drought in the oil-rich United Arab Emirates, whose mostly expat population is growing undeterred by a dry, hostile climate and the drying heat of summer.

Despite the UAE's best efforts, rainfall remains rare.

However, at last month's International Rain Improvement Forum in Abu Dhabi, the authorities presented a new hope: harnessing artificial intelligence to extract more moisture from the often cloudless skies.

Among the initiatives is an AI system to improve cloud seeding, the practice of using airplanes to shoot salt or other chemicals at clouds to increase rainfall.

“It's pretty much done,” said Luca Delle Monache, deputy director of the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California at San Diego.

“We're putting the finishing touches on it.”

However, Delle Monache admitted that AI was not a “silver bullet” for the United Arab Emirates, which, like other countries, has been pursuing cloud seeding for decades.

Cloud seeding works by increasing the size of droplets, which then fall as rain. It is estimated to increase precipitation by 10 to 15%, said Delle Monache.

But it only works with certain types of cumulus and puffy clouds, and can even suppress rain if not done correctly.

“You have to do it in the right place at the right time. That's why we use artificial intelligence,” he added.

- Prayers and applause

The three-year project, funded with $1.5 million from the United Arab Emirates' rain enhancement program, feeds satellite, radar, and meteorological data into an algorithm that predicts where seedable clouds will form in the next six hours.

It promises to advance the current method in which cloud seeding flights are directed by experts studying satellite images.

Hundreds of these flights take place every year in the United Arab Emirates.

With only around 100 millimeters (3.9 inches) of annual rainfall, the UAE's almost 10 million inhabitants rely mainly on desalinated water, piped from plants that produce around 14% of the world's total, according to official figures.

The population is 90% foreign and has increased almost 30-fold since the UAE was founded in 1971. People are concentrated in the big cities of Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Sharjah, refuges that hug the coast of the vast Arabian desert interior.

However, the country still needs underground water, replenished by rain and encouraged by a series of dams, for agriculture and industry.

Although the UAE authorities say that rainfall has increased, showers remain so unusual that schoolchildren have been known to cheer and run to classroom windows to get a better view.

Rain, even the artificial variety, is exotic enough to be a leisure attraction: on Dubai's Raining Street, visitors pay 300 dirhams (US$ 81) to walk in a fake drizzle.

Saying prayers for rain is an ancient practice of the Gulf's ruling families.

The memorable exception was last April, when the heaviest rains on record closed Dubai's main international air hub and flooded roads, paralyzing the city for days.

- 'Niche area'

In search of solutions, the United Arab Emirates began holding the rainfall forum in 2017, which has now had seven editions. Its Rain Improvement Program has distributed US$22.5 million in grants over a decade.

“When it comes to seeding clouds, this program here is the best in the world,” Delle Monache said at the forum, held near the presidential palace and close to the headquarters of ADNOC, the state oil company.

“It's a niche area in atmospheric science. There are few specialists in the world and they are practically all here now.”

His team's algorithm was not the only use of AI under discussion.

Marouane Temimi, an associate professor at Stevens Institute of Technology in New Jersey, described a system developed in the US that uses machine learning to track the path and impact of storms in real-time.

However, Temimi, like Delle Monache, was also cautious about AI solutions, warning that there were clear limits.

The lack of detailed data on cloud composition - a common problem as monitoring equipment is expensive - makes accurate predictions difficult, even with AI, Temimi said.

“I would say that we still have some work to do simply because we have data, but we don't have enough data to train models properly,” he told AFP.

The enthusiasm for AI was also tempered by Loic Fauchon, president of the World Water Council, which brings together government, business, UN, and other groups.

“You have to be careful. Try to find the right balance between artificial intelligence and human intelligence,” he told the conference.

“Don't move too fast towards artificial intelligence. Humanity is probably the best (option).”

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