Extreme Heat Is No Longer the Exception and Poses a Global Adaptation Challenge - OPINION JAN 26, 2026.

Photo Canva

Extreme Heat Is No Longer the Exception and Poses a Global Adaptation Challenge

By Ana Lucia Cunha Busch, TGAN Editor

Research conducted by the University of Oxford shows that 3.79 billion people could be exposed to extreme heat conditions by 2050 if global average warming reaches 2°C above pre-industrial levels, a scenario considered increasingly likely by climatologists. The analysis, published in the scientific journal Nature Sustainability, uses detailed climate projections to estimate the frequency of dangerously high temperatures in different regions of the world.

The study uses an indicator known as cooling degree days, which counts the number of days in which the temperature exceeds a threshold where some type of cooling becomes necessary to ensure comfort and thermal safety. According to the authors, the proportion of people living under extreme heat conditions could increase from 23 percent of the total in 2010 to 41 percent by 2050, raising exposure from approximately 1.54 billion to about 3.79 billion people.

The impacts are concentrated in tropical and subtropical countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, where dense populations coexist with high temperatures and often have limited access to resources for adaptation, such as efficient cooling systems. Countries like India, Nigeria, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and the Philippines are expected to have the largest affected populations.

The analysis also shows that even traditionally cold countries will face a significant increase in days of extreme heat, resulting in unexpected challenges for infrastructure, housing, and public services. Energy demand for cooling systems tends to grow, while the need for heating decreases, altering historical patterns of energy consumption.

According to the authors of the research, much of this change would occur even before global warming reaches 2°C, during the 1.5°C phase of average global warming—a limit that the scientific community considers likely to be exceeded this decade. This finding increases the sense of urgency regarding climate adaptation in essential areas such as public health, urban infrastructure, and energy systems.

Researchers recommend that public policies and adaptation plans consider the rapid expansion of sustainable cooling systems, improvements in urban design and construction, and mitigation strategies that accelerate the transition to net-zero emissions. Without immediate intervention, progressive warming could make extreme heat a daily challenge for billions of people, straining health services, economies, and social response capacities worldwide.

This text was compiled using public data, scientific reports, and information from meteorological institutions.

The Green Amazon News — All rights reserved.

The publication of this study in Nature Sustainability—a peer-reviewed scientific journal—ensures that the methods and conclusions undergo rigorous evaluation by experts in the field, lending solidity to the projections presented.

Source of the research: Jesus Lizana et al., “Global population living with extreme heat to double by 2050” (*Nature Sustainability*, January 26, 2026), published by the University of Oxford.

[1]: https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2026-01-26-global-population-living-extreme-heat-double-2050?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Global population living with extreme heat to double by 2050 | University of Oxford"

[2]: https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/nearly-half-of-worlds-population-could-suffer-extreme-heat-by-2050-oxford-study-warns-10889467?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Nearly Half Of World's Population Could Suffer Extreme Heat By 2050, Oxford Study Warns"